Why Crypto Might Have A Boring 2019
Waiting for the Bull Run? Waiting for a ’17 revival? Personally, I think it will not happen in 2019. “Why delusional?” “Why FUD?” I hear some folks yelling, already searching for the forks and torches. Frankly, just because I think Crypto does not deserve it – yet. Take a step aside, take a deep breath and clear your mind. Look at your counterfeit in the mirror, once you don’t see $$ in your eyes, we can start talking…
First off, I think – without a technical analysis perspective – we will see a year of consolidation. Maybe 2 or 3k ups and down as a range (in a wider timeframe), but no 4k, 6k, 8k, 10k, 2ok,10000000k jumps. However, this is just an opinion, no prediction or anything, just a bare thought-driven impression, I’d like to share with you.
What we saw in 2017 has been h-y-p-e on steroids. Millennials that saw their chance to jump into the next internet – and an industry was there to cater them. To these young folks, crypto has been the first touch with the world of finance, investing and trading. No entry restrictions, quick, fast gains, and much thrill and excitement – nice ingredients for a good hype. And the industry was there, oh boy, it was there – embracing the mob which runs their doors, waving with dollar notes. A tokenized potato ICO exit scamming with the word Penis is just one example of many weird ideas and scams, that made crypto a persiflage of itself. Lord knows, the tech – it has the potential to change our world for the better, but our glass bowl mentality let us stick to the price development. The media was there, Bitcoin in Big Bang Theory, Bitcoin in the Kardashian webshop, Rappers singing crypto songs and chicks decorated their nails with Monero and Litecoin logos for Instagram pics. Ugh. Is that sustainable mass adoption? Nah, it is a fancy fad – and not what smart money is looking for.
Recently, I wrote a small narrative on our telegram channel, where I wrote, I’d even like a $1 Bitcoin. Got me some laughter and I can deal with it. It was not meant, that I would not like a price increase for my own holdings, investment-wise, but at the same time, it meant that Bitcoin is more than just a trading vehicle for overnight riches.
Besides trading the coins on the blockchain, there is so much more important in Crypto. Sure, I’d like to see a 20k Bitcoin again, but considering the tech and the opportunities it brings in a micro and macro economical sense, I would love Bitcoin as a $1 coin as well. Regardless of its price, it contains an option, a possibility of freedom. Bitcoin is a symbol. A symbol for freedom from the power of banks and the shady games they play on the little man, freedom of the phucks politicians are creating with their currencies and their gamble with our wealth. Think about it and you might agree that the price is less important. Many people out there, often referred as nocoiners, say that crypto is just a passing phase, a recent frenzy. They are like a guy sitting on a beach with his back to the sea. The blockchain is like a fast-rising tide. No matter how comfortable the guy feels right now, the tide is rising with each crashing wave, and very soon, one of those waves will come crashing down over his head and engulf him.
I am long-term bullish on Bitcoin, but we will need time to clear the market and polish a shit show to a glamour gala. Because, this is what the crypto industry is right now – a brutal shit show. What did the ’17 hype left over? Some techies, gamblers which are desperately trying to cover their loss and some idealists. All waiting for the smart money to come back and make Crypto great again. But I don’t think we will see this kind of immature hype again. Crypto will grow, but I can imagine slow and steady – once the market has been washed out from all the scams and fast money mumbowambo. We need shops accepting crypto, we need crypto to become a normal part of our lives. On the other hand, crypto will always be a good tool for scammers and shady individuals – it might remain dangerous for the people on the street, because of the responsibility which is given to the user itself. But, well – there will be regulation, there will be increased user-friendliness and much more that is actually against the nature of Bitcoin. It was born as an anarchist, self-sufficient tool for people that take care about their own actions and don’t give all responsibility to an institution to handle it for them, but it seems exactly that is needed for a healthy price development.
We saw NEM go, we saw the ETC team taking a hard hit, small coin companies are leaving the field daily, not to talk about all these shitty tokens. So few ICOs have shown MVPs and working products a company would be proud to show off to its investors. So many ICOs creating products nobody would ever use, hence trash projects are vanishing every day. And this is a good thing, we need a clearing, we need the capital condensed in proven projects, where big communities are working on and have chances to become mass-adopted in the daily use. Right now, there is no space for a gazillion of garage projects with no further value, then the Binance price to become exchanged against Bitcoin. Crypto has to prove itself, and smart money sees this already coming. You see the bullish news all around, but you still wonder, why it does not reflect in the price, right? The answer why it does not do that is easy; they positioned themselves, but their horizon is not 3-6 months, it is 5-10 years. And especially Bitcoin with its limited/decreasing supply will become very interesting.
Crypto might need more time to take a breath, to kill its parasites and to grow up. We are collecting more and more long-term bullish fundamentals for a mature market. All we need to do is to stay here and observe, mimicking smart money and build a strong position over time. You might have some time to increase your BTC stack. To close this little pamphlet with Bon Jovi, whose music I really, really dislike, I will use the title of a terrible song:
“Keep the faith”