ALGOs that model/predict future price selling/buying pressure in TIME, RANGE and ENERGY. Suggest a likely Black Christmas, as the modeling of institutions own buy/sell programs and have likely triggered to a large degree, of which selling from Sept 9th to Jan 7th… These advanced ALGOs are used in highly liquid markets such as the Dow/S&P 500/Euro and have a high probability due to the ARC = Energy numbers being fairly high. Boxing out = expecting the full range within the given time, denoted by the geometry of the box in the above chart. Many elements here indicate further price declines in the U.S. equities market going forward, so what possible effect will this have on Bitcoin?
So far the model that has appeared since late August has been following its vector in intensity since September accurately. Think of the above like a hurricane following a path in time and price. Bitcoin has been holding fairly well in the mid to lower 6000 range with diminishing volatility and volume. This could lead to a break and panic below the low 6000 range short term. Longer term as Bitcoin is an alternative asset class which has characteristics of a currency/commodity. It could be seen as a safe haven, much like the U.S. dollar is. Short term being tied to simple buying/selling herd behavior it likely will suffer the ravages of panic selling as people buy U.S. dollars and switch to safe interest-bearing instruments for a risk-off environment.
Bitcoin has been in a smaller range sideways for the past month, hovering above the low 6k level for most of that time. If the U.S. equities markets drop people may sell their Crypto short term to protect capital. Due to the retail herd behavior of the BTC/Bitcoin news/emotional watch every tick and FUD/FOMO mentality, it could be a very interesting holiday season. One thing to note that institutional activity again is buy-side with the true HODL approach 5-10 years out in time with accumulation signs very very present the past months even in the face of the bear market. Their buying behavior has all been one-sided, which longer term should have a very positive effect going out into the future.
The smart money already has been selling imo, with a clear sign of volume picking up across the board. Everything above 2200 on the Dow will be seen as a likely a profit-taking range, with no clear support till the upper 18,000 area, then low 15,000 with major support located in the 13,000 to 11,000 longer term. The volume and geometry indicate a turbulent ride in the coming months ahead. The activity and volume expansion is in full effect. We also have signs/confirmations with companies like Apple reporting or in their case not wanting to report poor iPhone sales numbers going forward. A drop in housing starts, reports of declining sales and bankruptcies, strong dollar buying and rising interest rates all are helping perpetuate the market movements this holiday season. On the bright side, the statistics favor an upside move for stocks as the popular Santa Clause Rally has the edge in the overall statistics longer term. But with the geopolitical climate, rising interest rates, the trade war with China and just about any number of negative reasons for Santa to be screaming from his sleigh “SELL SELL SELL Mortimer!” We all might wish to be on guard for a possible Black Christmas…