With Segtwit2x coming on block 494784 (likely the 15th of November 2017), alts are bleeding again. Seeing the red sea in their portfolio makes it hard for many people to hold, leaving themselves asking if they should sell (likely at loss) to participate on the BTC fork and follow the herd for the buying frenzy, dare they miss out from the move. From a technical analysis point of view it is forming a head and shoulder pattern and many people may start to resist buying it for now. With a support line around 5.2K it might break down to 4.8k – that would be a nice entry for the run until the fork comes. So what to do? Watching the blood bath and holding altcoins for a possible retracement, wait for the ( ) dip and get in & hold until the fork?
STRATEGY I: Betting on a run of BTC
As always you have to decide if you see yourself as an investor or as an daytrader. Did you buy your altcoins with a long term hodl, or did you buy them in a mad trading frenzy, looking to profit from jumping from one coin to the other? However you see yourself, if you decide to go the BTC route, please consider a few points:
- History is likely to repeat itself and we had recently a fork for BitcoinGold. What happend here? People pulled money out of their altcoins and put it into BTC. The fork happened, people got their BTG, sold it off and BTG dropped. Altcoins did not recover as it is likely the whales converted their BTC profits into Fiat, with other future positions waiting for Segwit2x.
- There are some news that Coinbase and Bitfinex will support $BTC and $B2X.
- The consensus of the most analysts see BTC between $6.3K and $6.9k with the pump pre Segwit2x.
- The currently forming Head and Shoulders pattern might make BTC drop below 5k before it starts pumping again, with a measured move back to the mid 4000 range as possible support.
- If one bought BTC for a good price, reducing your position there and moving into ALT coins may offer some protection against a negative price move and give you diversification for the future.
STRATEGY 2: HOLD and eventually buy more
You bought your altcoins for a reason, right? You believe in the projects you bought into, as well as their futures. If so, just uninstall your blockfolio app and just wait it out. Don’t fret over every little price move up and down, it will only stress you out and lead to poor decisions. Clear your mind and think things through logically. It is likely that money will pump back to altcoins big time by mid november. Here is what you can do meanwhile:
- Revisit your portfolio and go through each coin one by one. Did you buy some just because of the hype train and haven’t done good due diligence on your holdings? You might consider dropping them into BTC pre Segwit2x. Check if there has been any action in their github, check their social profiles and if they met their roadmap goals until now. If you find (near-)dead coins in your portfolio, you prolly might be better selling at a loss, than holding just because everyone screams HODL LAMBO MOON. Well you know then…
- The legit projects are simply left in your portfolio. You can check if the prices for these altcoins are low enough to buy more and dollar cost average for the future. Find good buy opportunities with the help of support/resistance lines, and If you start researching the concept of support & resistance now, please consider to figure those lines on multiple timeframes, the larger the time frames, the more weight. Also keep note that once support has been broken, it is likely that the value will fall more and the old support will likely become the new resistance.
- You might consider the dollar cost averaging (DCA). Here is a great explanation on how to do that – it is a good strategy in our opinion and will keep the stress of the ups and downs away from the forefront of your mind, just follow your rulebook and don’t worry about the noise around you.
- Uninstall your portfolio apps and just do a weekly rough check. Don’t read the forums and groups, as it will make you uncertain and the less your knowledge have, the more is it likely for you to panic sell and make stupid mistakes you will likely regret later.