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Noting a report in 2018 by The Wall Street Journal that cites that around 20% of all the bitcoins created have been lost. This being the case, it therefore increases the scarcity of Bitcoin in the future. It may even lend credence to very large upward price moves that many pundits have been expecting, due to the diminished supply of BTC. Given the inherent anonymity of cryptocurrencies, many of these coins will likely never be recovered. This will further add to the value of future Bitcoin prices. Therefore, the true circulating supply is far tighter than most people understand. If ever there was a reason to FOMO, this is a big one…
Where are my bitcoins?
As the above article states, a whole new industry has emerged to hunt down lost/stolen coins. In many cases, it is a futile effort. For example, it is calculated that bitcoin’s inventor, Satoshi, has 1,041,715 bitcoins that are gone for good. Another example is the man who threw away a hard drive & Key containing over 7,500 bitcoins. Many cases of these lost/misplaced wallets & accounts have been cited. This is diminishing the overall supply of Bitcoin, and as awareness grows, the reduced supply may attract even more long-term buyers. Thus, creating greater time compression for future rises in BTC prices.
Due to the nature of transactions alone, more bitcoins are expected to be lost. It is similar to treasure ships sinking into the sea. Chainalysis’s price analysis of its metrics segregates the bitcoin supply by age and transaction activity. They used various forms of statistical sampling to produce a reflective summary of these lost coins. Many factors contribute to the diminishing supply in the future. Therefore, each cycle becomes sharper because fewer coins remain available for real trading. Chainalysis in 2017 and Ledger in 2025 released startling statistics indicating that 11-18% of Bitcoin was lost forever.
The lost understanding of the lost coins.
One thing not noted in any of the Wall Street Journal, Chainalysis, or analysis articles is the future impact on Bitcoin prices. Scarcity is a primary driver of the upward price movements of all cryptocurrencies. In BTC’s case, given its #1 market share, it could easily lead to some real exaggerations in the years ahead. Many future price analyses have not accounted for the missing 1/5 of all Bitcoins. Adding to a positive time compression ahead.
Miners’ conundrum: only around 1.32 million Bitcoins remain to be mined. (Source: Chainalysis & Blockchain.com explorer – approx. 19.68M BTC mined as of 2025)
The scarcity factor is set to rise at some point, becoming a constant reminder of the limited number of coins available in the future. Miners’ rewards get halved every 4 years. Thus, each halving increases pressure on prices as fewer new coins offset the permanent losses. This increases scarcity and, with it, the likelihood of higher market prices. Since over 93% of all coins have now been mined, this is set to creep into the thinking of most Bitcoin enthusiasts. This could trigger FOMO, panic buying, or die-hard hodlers.
Conclusion: The Real Impact of Lost Bitcoin
The story of lost Bitcoin is not a minor detail. Instead, it powerfully shapes the future supply. Therefore, every missing coin increases long-term scarcity across the entire network. And as time passes, fewer coins remain available for real trading activity. Thus, future price cycles may move faster and with greater intensity. But this structural shift is still ignored by many analysts. Consequently, the market may face a supply shock sooner than most expect.
